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April fish market supply and demand on game play

Number of visits: Date:2014-03-25

  Annual aquaculture industry concentration peak seedlings generally in April, and this time also began to gradually in aquatic feed, fish meal real consumption began.Every year in April, aquaculture for the success rate of the seedlings directly affect the aquatic feed production in May and June.And this among them, such as weather, disease uncertainty dominates.With 2012's case, when the weather is good, the aquatic glancing at abnormal smoothly.And aquatic feed enterprises original stock is not enough, a direct result of the April and may appear the sweep the fish meal feed enterprises spot, cause fishmeal prices are rising rapidly.And 2013 is just the opposite, aquaculture suffered multiple hit more rain, disease, especially in southern China survival rate more than thirty percent lower than in 2012.Fishmeal weak demand, which was 810000 tons under quota is favored to fishmeal market also ShaYu downgraded.

Supply and demand game drama to yangchun again in April, fish meal, began.

  A, in the first quarter of the contradiction between aquatic feed and fish meal delivery

Due to about 70% of fish meal is used in aquatic feed, so the production situation of aquatic feed and fish consumption has a direct relationship.But with the continuous development of fish meal replacement formula in recent years, fish meal using total remain in a steady level 140-1.5 million tons (import + domestic), but the aquatic feed production is growing.General 1 - march every year for the aquatic feed production off-season, feed most of the enterprises to be appropriate to stock up on New Year's day (before the Spring Festival), in the middle of march to early April, according to the situation of aquaculture and then to a wave of stock.Data according to the ministry of agriculture feed, except ruminant feed flat year-on-year last year dropped 29% compared to the aquatic feed, pig feed fell 2% year on year, egg feed fell 10% year on year, falling by 12%, meat and poultry feed other forage yield fell 8% year on year.The whole feed production situation is not optimistic, behind is the weak of aquaculture industry.

Here we need to pay attention to is that the aquatic feed production fell 29% year on year, according to the static book is expected, according to data fishmeal consumption and the reduction of 5-10% last year, amplitude is far less than the degree of aquatic feed to produce less.It can also be reflected from the side most early feed stock is relatively abundant.

  Second, Peru messages complex become key in April

After entering the middle of march, all kinds of news about Peru fish resources, quotas to follow.1, the former director of IMARPE said, as the kelvin wave near South America, from Australia at the end of march in early April will arrive in coast of Peru, will cause temperature rise, does not favor the anchovy fishing.But for now this kind of situation will also need to continue to observe.2, the Peruvian fishery association, said this year a good year for Peru fish resources, anchovy fishing should be adjusted.3, Peru production and naval agreement, will work together to supervise illegal fishing boat fishing Peru.4, 20, Peru media message said two weeks (April) el nino affects along the northern coast of Peru.But it is expected that for mild to moderate degree.Anchovy fish will be migrated, and yet the port direction.5, Peruvian fishery association called the avoid the influence of el nino, anchovy fishing suggest this quarter in the middle of April.At the same time, the Marine institute admits anchovy resources situation is good, but the el nino weather will make anchovy fish resources and larval hybrid, bad for fishing.

From the above we can see all kinds of news, Peruvian fishmeal local market is also various kinds of interests are affected.Now taken together, the probability of a major quota for this quarter is bigger, static book that in 270-3 million tons.

Three, ports, rising inventories have to focus on

Current port fish stocks are close to 210000 tons, but no fish meal the arrival of the peak in the past.If after April fish meal needs to maintain the light, so the port fishmeal inventories rising pressure will be more prominent.Port fishmeal inventory of the most stressful for guangzhou port, accounted for almost 40% of fish meal, followed by Shanghai.

Above all: fish meal is uncertain demand on one hand, on the other hand, seemed to big quota of Peru, which essence is the essence of the supply and demand.Then in April between performance, how to influence fishmeal market supply and demand, so as to affect the price of fish meal, fish meal channels will continue to follow,

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