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Cost-push corn futures upward momentum

Number of visits: Date:2014-02-28

Recently, because of cases of human infection with avian influenza is still fragmented, deep processing of pork prices, continuing losses occurred factors, such as corn market bears rich atmosphere.Corn, 1405 contracts while in short-term pressure on the internal cause of the above factors, but before the end of April, because the spot price, produce cost-push up the power, the price can look up to more than 2420 yuan/ton.

The northeastern spot signs start.February 21-24, cofco zhaodong, cyclobalanopsis longfeng, cofco longjiang, TongLiao clubs, cofco elm, northeast deep processing enterprise in front of the purchase price such as fuel ethanol were up 30-80 yuan/ton.BaYuJuan high-quality corn increased 10-20 yuan/ton last weekend.

Temporary storage volume continued to surge is a driving force of the rising prices.As of February 15, 2014, three provinces of northeast district 1 total store 42.96 million tons of corn in the acquisition, according to the current purchase progress and speed, to the end of the store to buy in the end of April, in the store to buy amount is likely to exceed 55 million tons, or even close to 60 million tons.In the store to buy makes farmer surplus grain quantity drops rapidly in northeast China.According to the monitoring center, the grain to February 19, jilin corn farmers sales progress 60%, up from 40% a year earlier.Farmers in heilongjiang province sales progress 62%, up from 49% a year earlier.Over the store to buy is what makes the northeast high-quality grain supply less and less, to promote local prices began to rise.

In the store to buy in a certain period of time to change the supply and demand situation of the northeast and even the national: according to the store to buy in the current rate of progress and, in the store to buy total more than 55 million tons of nearly 60 million tons of possibility is very large, even it's radically changed within a period (store) before an auction in the northeast and even the national supply and demand situation, the country and the northeast into the demand will have supply exceeds demand, this will lead to corn prices.Will tell from the price order, northeast heilongjiang, jilin, liaoning spot to drive internal should be Inner Mongolia;After passive higher spot prices drive northeast guangdong port price (cost), finally lead to increased diversion of north China region, prices.Also should be from the amplitude of the northeast > > guangdong ports in north China.And jilin corn prices will rise to the store to buy in the base price 2220 yuan/ton, and spot prices eventually will be conductive to the futures market.

Reservoir in the corn in the short term auction shall not: retrospective auction, corn (2007/12/11-2008/7/29) inside shanhaiguan pass the central reserve auction, corn (2008/7/22-10/14) in the northeast corn storage auction, (2009/7/21-2011/11/22) in the northeast corn storage auction, move inside shanhaiguan pass across the province (2009/9/15-2011/8/16) library corn auction, all started in the spot in short supply due to the price boom period, and storage, inventory is huge relationship is not big enough.The central reserve and store of corn in the auction, the main purpose is of high market price, on the one hand, on the other hand the tight parts meet the supply of goods.Can be expected, corn near store auction this year should be a spot prices have begun to start and increase significantly.And store to buy in the policy will be ended at the end of April, store of corn in the auction at the earliest after should be in May.

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