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Quarterly review 1 and 2 quarter trends outlook: forage breeding needs discretion

Number of visits: Date:2014-05-14

Investment point

2014 q1 most domestic agricultural prices depressed.Abalone - 40% compared to the price, the sea cucumber prices - 33.33%, compared to the live duck, pork prices 29.29% year-on-year to 29.29%, the hog price - 16.83%, compared to the price of apple juice - 16.3%, sugar prices - 16.3% year-on-year, soybean oil, soybean meal price year-on-year - 11.97% - 10.3% compared to the price, scallops - 9.09% compared to the price.Compared prices earlier this year, the abalone from - 43.75% - 29.97% month-on-month, pigs, pork rose to 24.76% - 17.81% month-on-month, scallops, sea cucumber - 14.29%, soybean meal, rose to 11.35%, sugar 5.91% month-on-month, apple juice, rose to 5.8%.

By domestic agricultural prices fell, compared the first two quarters, agricultural listed companies 2014 q1 performance trends callback.From the point of operating income growth, seed, feed, livestock and poultry breeding, animal health and aquaculture of this a few core plate 2014 q1 revenue year-on-year growth of 21.74% respectively, 8.44%, 13.84%, 8.44% and 13.84%.These seeds, livestock and poultry, aquaculture and animal health 2014 q1 revenue growth in the second half of 2013 compared to the callback.From the point of belonging to net profit growth, seed, feed, livestock and poultry breeding, aquaculture and animal health, and this a few core plate 2014 q1 net profit year-on-year growth of 12.82%, 40.39%, 40.39% respectively, 5.64% and 2.68%.

Into q2 2014, from the point of sequential trend, spot prices further down the main agricultural products including sea cucumber, cotton, soybean, wheat, sugar and soybeans, etc.And prices recovered agricultural products mainly including pigs, pork, chicken, 40, corn and soybean meal, etc.

Investment strategies and Suggestions:

Animal husbandry and feed plate: (1) the location of the current prices and are very similar in May 2010, likely in cycle reversal time node.However from the amount of absolute quantity to numerous sows at present, there are falling space.Scale to supply harder, if prices rebounded sharply, may and June on the rising trend of space and time has a negative impact.Based on the above judgment, we think that if prices rose modestly, may and June warehouse breeding stock, advice to focus on animal husbandry original stake (002714, not ratings) and the young eagles farming (002477, not ratings).If a larger may and June prices increase suggested do feed stocks, focus on DBN's undertaking, worth (002385, buy) and tang (002567, not ratings) god.(2) since the beginning of the year, appeared a significant rise in the prices of domestic prawns, farmers farming intention and motivation to get more improvement.Farmers investment in farming in 2014 is expected to have more than last year.Breeding the downstream recovery will help drive the aquatic feed industry gradually out of the 2013 trough, advice to focus on haida group (002311, buy).

Seed plate: judging from our understanding, the breeding season maize seed area fell by 30% - 30% this year, some serious excess varieties fell by 80%, even in the shutdown state, 2014/2015 season industry inflection point basically established.Denghai seed industry (002041, buy) of the parent company denghai LiangYu series respectively in 605 and LiangYu company is one of the varieties and the eastern north China power the strongest, the next two to three years will be denghai varieties echelon the best period in history.Under the strong industry and company fundamentals, seed industry market a kick-off meeting for the year than in previous years earlier, the right layout.

Risk tip: aquaculture disease and risk of sudden natural disasters.

TypeInfo: Industry News

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