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This year our country for soybean import peak in advance

Number of visits: Date:2014-03-19

 

Typically, from may to July each year is the peak of South American soybean to the port.This year 1 ~ 2 months China's soybean imports far ahead, is expected in 1 ~ 4 soybean imports will be higher than the same level in our country, China's soybean imports off-season does not light.

Just after the Spring Festival, domestic soybean meal spot market in the ear of out of the downtrend, estimated that many people could not finish, soybean meal spot prices have dropped to 3300 ~ 3400 yuan/ton.Just more than a month time, soybean meal price dropped 450 ~ 550 yuan/ton, or 11% ~ 14%.

The cause of soybean meal prices, demand for sure there is a big problem, from the point of end products prices, in addition to the price of beef and mutton and prices, ruminant material needs to maintain, poultry, pigs, material demand must also fell.

  Soybean high import level surface

In the process of soybean meal prices fall, will be possible to reduce the soybean meal feed enterprises inventory levels, adding to the situation of soybean meal demand, clinch a deal namely soybean meal is tepid.But under the cover of weak demand, China's soybean high level of imports are emerging.

Customs data show that China's soybean imports in January of 5.9 million tons, in February, 4.5 million tons of imported 10.4 million tons of two months, year-on-year increase of 2.73 million tons.Market is expected to 3 ~ 4 months China's soybean imports in at least 11 million tons, so 1 ~ 4 months China has reached 21.4 million tons, soybean imports May 1 ~ 4 month China's soybean imports last year to 15.49 million tons, incremental expanded to nearly 6 million tons.

Slightly lower degree of imports, given the same period last year growth will be exaggerated, 1 ~ 4 month imports this year than the year before April 1 ~ 18.14 million tons of imports is still an increase of 3.2 million tons.It serves to show China's soybean imports this year and increase the extent of the situation.

  Last year - sell basis for aura

Market may remember, last year the domestic soybean meal spot market always feel very nervous, even though China has reached 7 million tons of soybean imports, domestic soybean meal was not ease supply.In with the cooperation of weak prices of rival soybean oil, soybean meal spot prices out of 3800 ~ 4500 yuan/ton high interval operation, - good squeeze profits.

Under the background of the global soybean crop, vegetable oil has started to shrink further squeeze profit expectations, the sales mode of full swing forward basis.After last year's "11", researched the forward theory of squeezing profits of up to 1000 yuan/ton, this theory is, of course, each vegetable oil are quoted forward soybean meal basis of the contract.

Oil from the track of soybean meal basis price, in the second half of last year to booking in 2 ~ 3 this year soybean meal basis for 380 ~ 450 yuan/ton, the contract price corresponding M1405 domestic soybean meal futures contracts.It now appears that this basis, combined with the current futures price, the cost in 3560 ~ 3630 yuan/ton, and spot prices have dropped to 3300 ~ 3400 yuan/ton, basis procurement has apparently losses;Booking of soybean meal basis during the month of September 6 ~ 230 ~ 260 yuan/ton, corresponding M1409 contracts, from the point of now, the basis has dropped to 80 ~ 180 yuan/ton, even after 6 ~ 9 month basis also has negative 50 ~ 150 yuan/ton.

Is researched in the big sell a forward contract or contract basis at the same time, the lock on the expected profit purchasing soybean, it was also at the beginning of this year, domestic soybean imports shows strong data confirm.

  The bean exports is much higher than the same period last year

From U.S. soybean weekly inspection data can see, the soybean exports the United States this year is still good.Four times the total export inspection data published in February of 5.33 million tons, and total inspection only 3.79 million tons over the same period last year.Entering march, the amount of weekly inspection is still in the level of 1 million tons, weekly inspection quantity and the same period last year has been below 500000 tons.

I know, American pretend to 3.9 million tons of soybeans in China in February, Brazil pretend to 3.1 million tons, up to 7 million tons.The soybean has arrived in our country, or arrive in April.The ministry of commerce is expected at present, China's soybean imports in March of 5.25 million tons;Market is expected to institutional, remained in April, China's imports 6 million tons level.

  Supply pressure oil meal market continuously

Typically, from may to July each year is the peak of South American soybean to the port.Last year because of shipment delay, make the soybean import peak delayed 1 month;1 ~ 2 months China's soybean imports this year, is ahead and 1 ~ 4 month China's soybean imports will be higher than the same level, China's soybean imports off-season does not light.

Comprehensive analysis, in the first half of this year the domestic soybean oil supply pressure will continue to affect pulp market situation, the domestic oil meal market continue performance is weak in the vulnerability.

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